Trade the world where it happens.

A prediction market that asks “if X happens, will Y?”

Normal prediction markets ask whether something will happen. Conditionals asks what happens next: if the Clarity Act passes, will ETH hit $5k? If Messi plays, will Miami win?

You bet in IMD. The IMD oracle settles every market. It runs on Robinhood Chain.

Most big questions depend on other questions.

You might think ETH goes up if a bill passes, and down if it doesn't. A normal market makes you bet on ETH either way, so you can be right about ETH and still lose because the bill went the other way.

And nobody can see the answer to the real question: how much does the bill matter?

Every market splits into two worlds:

• World A: X happens.
• World B: X doesn't happen.

Each world has a YES side and a NO side for Y. You bet in the world you believe in.

Only one world will happen. Bets in the other world are refunded in full. You never lose money on a world that didn't happen.

1. Create. Anyone opens a market: if X, will Y? They set when betting closes and when the answer is due.
2. Bet. Put IMD on YES or NO, in World A, World B, or both.
3. Ask. When the answer is due, the IMD oracle is asked two questions: did X happen, and did Y?
4. Settle. The world that didn't happen is refunded. In the world that did, the winners take the pot.

“If the Clarity Act passes, will ETH hit $5k?”

The crowd says: 60% if it passes, 30% if it doesn't. The Act doubles ETH's chances.

The Act passes and ETH hits $5k. Carol and Dan get their money back. Alice wins the 100 IMD pot minus a 3% fee: 97 IMD for her 60. Bob loses his 40.

There is no bookmaker setting prices. The odds come from how much money is on each side.

60 IMD on YES and 40 on NO means the crowd thinks YES is 60% likely. Every new bet moves the odds.

Put both worlds side by side and you see something no normal market shows: how much X changes Y. That number is useful even to people who never bet.

On an order book, you need someone willing to take the other side of your trade at your price. Small markets have few traders, so prices are bad or there is no trade at all.

Conditionals uses shared pots instead. Your bet goes straight into a pot, any size, at once. Everyone on the winning side splits the losing side's money in proportion to what they put in.

A market works with two people. It works with two thousand.

The IMD oracle: a panel of 5 independent AI agents that read the question and check the facts. At least 4 must agree.

The market pays the oracle itself, from a small deposit the creator puts down. The answer comes back signed, and the market checks the signature before it accepts it. Nobody can type in a fake answer.

If the oracle can't answer, anyone can ask again. If there is still no answer 30 days later, everyone is refunded.

One fee, only on the winning world: 3% of its pot.

• 2% is burned, removed from IMD's supply forever.
• 1% goes to the builder.

No fee on refunds. No fee on a world where everyone bet the same side. The fee is never more than what the losers put in, so a winner always gets back at least what they bet.

• No company holds your IMD. The rules live in a public contract on Robinhood Chain.
• Nobody can pause markets, move funds or change a market after it opens.
• Anyone can trigger settlement. Winners claim their own payout.

Know the risks: you can lose what you bet, the oracle can be wrong, and a question that is too vague ends in a refund. Betting closes before the answer is known; pick markets where that is clear.

• Seeded markets, so new markets open with odds already on both sides.
• Rewards for early bets, so the people who set the odds first earn more.
• Selling before the end, so you can take profit or cut a loss.

Conditionals turns “what if” into a price. Try it at conditionals-bay.vercel.app.